... then you just might be talking about the March report on CPI inflation.  The bad news, from the Cleveland Fed...

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% (5.0% annualized rate) in March. The median CPI is a measure of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.4% (4.3% annualized rate) in March. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.3% (4.2% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Over the last 12 months, the median CPI rose 2.7%, the CPI 3.4%, and the CPI less food and energy 2.1%.

... and the tale in a table:

      

Cpi_march_table

      

I suppose you might take some solace in the fact that the 12-month moving-average for the CPI excluding food and energy components has been holding rock steady.  But the median CPI -- which, I suggested in a post a few days ago, is probably a better predictor of the inflation rate going forward -- is not providing much comfort.  What's more, the distribution of expenditure-weighted price changes is the picture of ugliness:

      

March_distribution 

      

The usual caveat about reading too much into a single monthly number applies, of course, and my colleague Mike Bryan suggests that we remember seasonal adjustments are relatively large (in the upward direction) in March. So something funky could be happening there.  On the other hand, Mike notes that owners equivalent rent accelerated in March, something many folks have been concerned about for some time.

Overall, I'd say this is one to frown about.

UPDATE:   Calculated Risk delivers the goods on the owners equivalent rent component of the CPI.  Kash advises: Don't panic, but don't fall asleep.  Mark Thoma notes there is "no need to make a call [on monetary policy] yet."  Mr. Naybob says I told you so. The Skeptical Spectator links to yet more reactions from blogland and beyond. 

If you want to see what an improving inflation pircture looks like, try the UK.