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personal website :: Google Scholar page ::
email :: 404-498-8353
To interview economists, press should contact Public Affairs at 470-249-8348.
Tao Zha is research center executive director of the Center for Quantitative Economic Research in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Samuel Candler Dobbs professor of economics at Emory University, and Research Associate at National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). His major fields of study are macroeconomics, financial economics, econometrics, and the Chinese economy.
Dr. Zha was born in 1962. He received his doctorate in economics from the University of Minnesota in December 1992. His major fields of study are macroeconomics, financial economics, the Chinese economy, and econometrics. Dr. Zha has served on the editorial board for several journals including Econometrica, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and Journal of Econometrics. He has published in many journals, including National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual, Brookings Papers on Economics Activity, Review of Economic Studies, Econometrica, American Economic Review, and Journal of Political Economy. Three of his articles were cited by the 2011 Nobel Economic Sciences Prize Committee.
2021-19
The S-Curve: Understanding the Dynamics of Worldwide Financial Liberalization
Nan Li, Chris Papageorgiou, Tong Xu, and Tao Zha
July 2021
Abstract | Full text
2020-19
Stock-Bond Return Correlation, Bond Risk Premium Fundamentals, and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Regime
Erica X.N. Li, Tao Zha, Ji Zhang, and Hao Zhou
October 2020
Abstract | Full text
2020-16a
Monetary Stimulus amid the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data
Kaiji Chen, Haoyu Gao, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
August 2020 (Revised July 2022)
Abstract | Full text
2020-15
Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19
Andrew G. Atkeson, Karen Kopecky, and Tao Zha
August 2020
Abstract | Full text
2020-7
Discount Shock, Price-Rent Dynamics, and the Business Cycle
Jianjun Miao, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
May 2020
Abstract | Full text
2020-6
Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, and Tao Zha
May 2020
Abstract | Full text
2019-4
A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
March 2019
Abstract | Full text (902 KB)
2018-12
Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies
Kaiji Chen and Tao Zha
November 2018
Abstract | Full text (1,018 KB)
2016-9a
Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China
Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
September 2016 (Revised October 2017)
Abstract | Full text (518 KB)
2016-7
Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
Patrick Higgins, Tao Zha, and Karen Zhong
July 2016
Abstract | Full text (407 KB)
2016-1
What We Learn from China's Rising Shadow Banking: Exploring the Nexus of Monetary Tightening and Banks' Role in Entrusted Lending
Kaiji Chen, Jue Ren, and Tao Zha
January 2016
Abstract | Full text (544 KB)
2015-8
Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Bank Intermediation Shocks: A Structural Approach
Kaiji Chen and Tao Zha
August 2015
Abstract | Full text (966 KB)
2015-5
Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy
Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
June 2015
Abstract | Full text (649 KB)
2014-21
The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models
Daniel F. Waggoner, Hongwei Wu, and Tao Zha
November 2014
Abstract | Full text (957 KB)
2014-16
Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models
Andrew Foerster, Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
August 2014
Abstract | Full text (489 KB)
2014-15
Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles
Jianjun Miao, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
August 2014
Abstract | Full text (745 KB)
2013-6
Land Prices and Unemployment
Zheng Liu, Jianjun Miao, and Tao Zha
September 2013
Abstract | Full text (628 KB)
2013-1
Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models
Andrew Foerster, Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
March 2013
Abstract | Full text (539 KB)
2011-11
Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
July 2011
Abstract | Full text (411KB)
2010-18a
Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
(Revised) February 2012
Abstract | Full text (418 KB)
2010-1
Do Credit Constraints Amplify Macroeconomic Fluctuations?
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
February 2010
Abstract | Full text (416 KB)
2009-5
Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
March 2009
Abstract | Full text (668 KB)
2009-3a
Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-Switching DSGE Approach
Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
(Revised) October 2010
Abstract | Full text (755 KB)
2008-23a
Minimal State Variable Solutions to Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
(Revised) September 2010
Abstract | Full text (244 KB)
2008-20
Learning, Adaptive Expectations, and Technology Shocks
Kevin X.D. Huang, Zheng Liu, and Tao Zha
September 2008
Abstract | Full text (602 KB)
2008-19
Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
September 2008
Abstract | Full text (228 KB)
2008-18
Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference
Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
September 2008
Abstract | Full text (548 KB)
2007-23
Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation
Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
October 2007
Abstract | Full text (768 KB)
2007-12
Understanding the New Keynesian Model When Monetary Policy Switches Regimes
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
July 2007
Abstract | Full text (477 KB)
2006-22
Methods for Inference in Large Multiple-Equation Markov-Switching Models
Christopher A. Sims, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
November 2006
Abstract | Full text (310 KB)
2006-20
The Conquest of South American Inflation
Thomas Sargent, Noah Williams, and Tao Zha
November 2006
Abstract | Full text (1.03 MB)
2006-19a
Indeterminacy in a Forward-Looking Regime-Switching Model
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
(Revised) September 2007
Abstract | Full text (548 KB)
2006-3
Transparency, Expectations, and Forecasts
Andrew Bauer, Robert A. Eisenbeis, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
April 2006
Abstract | Full text (420 KB)
2005-27
Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application
Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez, Daniel Waggoner, and Tao Zha
December 2005
Abstract | Full text (472 KB)
2004-22
Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation
Thomas Sargent, Noah Williams, and Tao Zha
September 2004
Abstract | Full text (1 MB)
2004-15
MCMC Method for Markov Mixture Simultaneous-Equation Models: A Note
Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha
June 2004
Abstract | Full text (209 KB)
2004-14
Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?
Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha
June 2004
Abstract | Full text (368 KB)
2004-13
Normalization in Econometrics
James D. Hamilton, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
June 2004
Abstract | Full text (986 KB)
2002-19
Modest Policy Interventions
Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha
November 2002
Abstract | Full text (396 KB)
2002-8a
Evaluating Wall Street Journal Survey Forecasters: A Multivariate Approach
Robert Eisenbeis, Daniel Waggoner, and Tao Zha
July 2002
Abstract | Full text (116 KB)
2000-19
Assessing Simple Policy Rules: A View from a Complete Macro Model
Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha
October 2000
Abstract | Full text (388 KB)
2000-8
Likelihood-Preserving Normalization in Multiple Equation Models
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
June 2000
Abstract | Full text (202 KB)
2000-3
A Gibbs Simulator for Restricted VAR Models
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
March 2000
Abstract | Full text (383 KB)
99-22
Modest Policy Interventions
Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha
December 1999
Abstract | Full text (313 KB)
99-21
Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors
Lutz Kilian and Tao Zha
December 1999
Abstract | Full text (128 KB)
98-22
Conditional Forecasts in Dynamic Multivariate Models
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
December 1998
Abstract | Full text (198 KB)
98-12
Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?
Christopher A. Sims and Tao A. Zha
July 1998
Abstract | Full text (286 KB)
97-11
Normalization, Probability Distribution, and Impulse Responses
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
November 1997
Abstract | Full text (131 KB)
97-7
Trends in Velocity and Policy Expectations
David B. Gordon, Eric M. Leeper, and Tao Zha
November 1997
Abstract | Full text (551 KB)
96-13
Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models
Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha
October 1996
Abstract | Full text (534 KB)
96-8
Identification, Vector Autoregression, and Block Recursion
Tao Zha
August 1996
Abstract | Full text (623 KB)
95-8
Bankruptcy Law Capital Allocation and Aggregate Effects: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Agent Model with Incomplete Markets
Tao Zha
October 1995
Abstract | Full text (600 KB)
95-7
Identifying Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Under Flexible Exchange Rates
David O. Cushman and Tao Zha
October 1995
Abstract | Full text (972 KB)
95-6
Error Bands for Impulse Responses
Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha
September 1995
Abstract | Full text (1.28 MB)
Karen Kopecky and Tao Zha "Impacts of COVID-19: Mitigation Efforts versus Herd Immunity." Policy Hub (2020-3).
Abstract | Full text
Andrew Bauer, Robert A. Eisenbeis, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Transparency, Expectations, and Forecasts." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (2006 Q1).
Abstract | Full text (564 KB)
Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha. "Assessing Simple Policy Rules: A View from a Complete Macroeconomic Model." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (2001 Q4).
Abstract | Full text (316 KB)
Madeline Zavodny and Tao Zha. "Monetary Policy and Racial Unemployment Rates." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (2000 Q1).
Abstract | Full text (218 KB)
Tao Zha. "A Dynamic Multivariate Model for Use in Formulating Policy." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (1998 Q1).
Abstract | Full text (360 KB)
Tao Zha. "Identifying Monetary Policy: A Primer." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (1997 Q2).
Abstract | Full text (427 KB)
Tao Zha. "The Rise of Shadow Banking in China," macroblog. April 11, 2016.
Patrick Higgins and Tao Zha. "Examining China's Economy: A Conversation with Atlanta Fed Researchers." Economy Matters podcast. September 22, 2016.