The commentaries for the 75 most recent GDPNow updates are below, starting with the latest estimate.
September 29, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 29, unchanged from September 27 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Census Bureau, increases in the model’s nowcasts of the contributions of personal consumption expenditures and net exports to GDP growth were offset by a downward revision in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, October 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 26, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 27, unchanged from September 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 9.6 percent to 9.9 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 18, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 19, unchanged from September 14 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 6.8 percent to 6.3 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 1.20 percentage points to 1.05 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 13, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 14, down from 5.6 percent on September 8. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and third-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 4.0 percent, 11.7 percent, and 2.3 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent, 10.6 percent, and 1.9 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, September 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 07, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.6 percent on September 8, unchanged from September 6 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 1.37 percentage points to 1.36 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, September 14. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 05, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.6 percent on September 6, unchanged from September 1 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth were offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real net exports.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 31, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.6 percent on September 1, unchanged from August 31 after rounding. After this morning's releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 11.8 percent to 12.3 percent was offset by decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real government spending growth from 4.3 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, to 4.2 percent and 2.3 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 30, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.6 percent on August 31, down from 5.9 percent on August 24. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.8 percent and 12.3 percent, respectively, to 4.3 percent and 11.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.10 percentage points to 0.26 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 23, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.9 percent on August 24, up from 5.8 percent on August 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 11.4 percent to 12.3 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 31. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 15, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.8 percent on August 16, up from 5.0 percent on August 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.4 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively, to 4.8 percent and 11.4 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 24. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 14, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.0 percent on August 15, up from 4.1 percent on August 8. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, increases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 3.2 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively, to 4.4 percent and 8.8 percent were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 2.7 percent to 2.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, August 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 07, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.1 percent on August 8, up from 3.9 percent on August 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 5.2 percent to 8.1 percent was slightly offset by decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real government spending growth from 3.5 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, to 3.2 percent and 2.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.08 percentage points to 0.11 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, August 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 31, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 3.9 percent on August 1, up from 3.5 percent on July 28. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.1 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 5.2 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, August 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 27, 2023
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 3.5 percent on July 28. The initial estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 27 was 2.4 percent, equal to the final GDPNow model nowcast released on July 26 after rounding.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, August 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 25, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on July 26, unchanged from July 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 0.1 percent to -0.1 percent.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the second quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the third quarter will be on Friday, July 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 18, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on July 19, unchanged from July 18 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -0.8 percent to 0.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 17, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on July 18, up from 2.3 percent on July 10. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, increases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures and real government spending growth from 1.2 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 1.4 percent and 2.8 percent were partially offset by a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 10.5 percent to 9.4 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.72 percentage points to -0.67 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 09, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent on July 10, up from 2.1 percent on July 6. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 9.6 percent to 10.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, July 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 05, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on July 6, up from 1.9 percent on July 3. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 8.8 percent to 9.6 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.75 percentage points to -0.72 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, July 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 02, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent on July 3, down from 2.2 percent on June 30. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 10.4 percent to 8.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, July 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
June 29, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on June 30, up from 1.8 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.9 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively, to 1.1 percent and 10.4 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.71 percentage points to -0.75 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, July 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
June 26, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.8 percent on June 27, down from 1.9 percent on June 20. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 9.7 percent to 8.6 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, June 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
June 19, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent on June 20, up from 1.8 percent on June 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -2.1 percent to 2.2 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
June 14, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.8 percent on June 15, down from 2.2 percent on June 8. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 1.4 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, to 0.9 percent and 2.3 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 20. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
June 07, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on June 8, unchanged from June 7 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 8.9 percent to 8.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
June 06, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on June 7, up from 2.0 percent on June 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from -1.05 percentage points to -0.73 percentage points and increases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and second-quarter real government spending growth from 7.9 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 8.9 percent and 2.7 percent were partly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.8 percent to 1.4 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
May 31, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.0 percent on June 1, up from May 26 after rounding. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 5.9 percent to 7.9 percent was partially offset by a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.3 percent to 1.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, June 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
May 25, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent on May 26, down from 2.9 percent on May 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, decreases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real net exports and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth were partially offset by increases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real government spending growth.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
May 16, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.9 percent on May 17, up from 2.6 percent on May 16. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -6.3 percent to 0.6 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, May 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
May 15, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.6 percent on May 16, down from 2.7 percent on May 8. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, decreases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real government spending growth from 1.8 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.6 percent and 2.1 percent were partially offset by an increase in second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.2 percent to 4.6 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, May 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
May 07, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.7 percent on May 8, unchanged from May 4 after rounding. After last week's employment situation report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 2.7 percent to 4.2 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.1 percent to 1.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.31 percentage points to 0.35 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, May 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
May 03, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.7 percent on May 4, up from 1.8 percent on May 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.3 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively, to 2.1 percent and 2.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.38 percentage points to 0.31 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, May 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
April 30, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.8 percent on May 1, up from 1.7 percent on April 28. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.3 percent to 1.0 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, May 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
April 27, 2023
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.7 percent on April 28. The initial estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 27 was 1.1 percent, equal to the final GDPNow model nowcast released on April 26 after rounding.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, May 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
April 25, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on April 18, unchanged from April 14 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -5.8 percent to -5.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
April 17, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on April 18, unchanged from April 14 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -5.8 percent to -5.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
April 13, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on April 14, up from 2.2 percent on April 10. After recent releases the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and first-quarter real government spending growth increased from -6.5 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, to -5.9 percent and 2.6 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, April 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
April 09, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on April 10, up from 1.5 percent on April 5. After last week's employment situation report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.4 percent and -7.8 percent, respectively, to 4.1 percent and -6.5 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.29 percentage points to 0.25 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, April 14. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
April 04, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 1.5 percent on April 5, down from 1.7 percent on April 3. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.7 percent to 3.4 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -8.5 percent to -7.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.44 percentage points to 0.29 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, April 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
April 02, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 1.7 percent on April 3, down from 2.5 percent on March 31. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, decreases in the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.6 percent and -7.3 percent, respectively, to 3.7 percent and -8.5 percent were slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real government spending growth from 1.7 percent to 2.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
March 30, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on March 31, down from 3.2 percent on March 24. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and first-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 5.0 percent, -7.0 percent, and 1.8 percent, respectively, to 4.6 percent, -7.3 percent, and 1.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, April 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
March 23, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 3.2 percent on March 24, unchanged from March 16 after rounding. An increase in the nowcast of GDP growth from 3.2 percent to 3.5 percent following the March 21 existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors was reversed after this morning’s advance manufacturing report from the US Census Bureau.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 31. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
March 16, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 3.2 percent on March 16, unchanged from March 15 after rounding. After this morning's releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real net exports was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 24. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
March 15, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 3.2 percent on March 15, up from 2.6 percent on March 8. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross personal consumption expenditures growth, first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and first-quarter real government spending growth increased from 4.4 percent, -6.8 percent, and 1.5 percent, respectively, to 5.0 percent, -6.4 percent, and 1.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, March 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
March 08, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.6 percent on March 8, up from 2.0 percent on March 7. The nowcast of first-quarter growth in real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on services increased from 3.8 percent to 5.2 percent after this morning’s international trade report from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which includes data used by the model to estimate spending on international travel within this PCE subcomponent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
March 07, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.0 percent on March 7, down from 2.3 percent on March 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.7 percent and -6.1 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and -6.4 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
March 01, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent on March 1, down from 2.8 percent on February 27. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and first-quarter real government spending growth decreased from -5.1 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively, to -6.1 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.82 percentage points to 0.60 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, March 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
February 27, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.8 percent on February 27, up from 2.7 percent on February 24. After this morning's Advance Census Manufacturing report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -5.3 percent to -5.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
February 24, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.7 percent on February 24, up from 2.5 percent on February 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.6 percent and -6.0 percent, respectively, to 3.8 percent and -5.3 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, February 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
February 16, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on February 16, up from February 15. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -10.4 percent to -8.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, February 24. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
February 15, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on February 15, up from 2.2 percent on February 8. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.0 percent to 3.6 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -5.6 percent to -6.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
February 08, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on February 8, up from 2.1 percent on February 7. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from -6.2 percent to -5.6 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
February 07, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on February 7, up from 0.7 percent on February 1. After releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of first-quarter gross personal consumption expenditures growth, and first-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.9 percent and -9.3 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and -6.2 percent, respectively.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
February 01, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 0.7 percent, unchanged from January 27 after rounding. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.43 percentage points to -1.40 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, February 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 27, 2023
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 0.7 percent on January 27. The initial estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 26 was 2.9 percent, 0.6 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on January 20. Beginning with this update, we are including some technical adjustments to GDPNow, and we document those adjustments here. (You can also read about the adjustments under the Related Resources tab, in the link named Modifications to GDPNow Model Forecast.)
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 20, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 remains 3.5 percent on January 20. The nowcast was unchanged after rounding following this morning's report from the National Association of Realtors.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the first quarter of 2023 will be on Friday, January 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 19, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.5 percent on January 19, unchanged from January 18 after rounding. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -24.6 percent to -24.0 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, January 20. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 18, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.5 percent on January 18, down from 4.1 percent on January 10. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter gross personal consumption expenditures growth, fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth, and fourth-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 3.5 percent, 6.8 percent, and 1.0 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent, 6.6 percent, and 0.8 percent, respectively.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, January 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 10, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 4.1 percent on January 10, up from 3.8 percent on January 5. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.2 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, January 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 05, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.8 percent on January 5, down from 3.9 percent on January 3. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.6 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively, to 3.2 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.17 percentage points to 0.35 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, January 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 03, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.9 percent on January 3, up from 3.7 percent on December 23. After last week's Advance Economic Indicators report from the US Census Bureau and this morning's construction spending release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and fourth-quarter real government spending growth increased from 3.8 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, to 6.1 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.35 percentage points to 0.17 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, January 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 23, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.7 percent on December 23, up from 2.7 percent on December 20. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.4 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively, to 3.6 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, January 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 20, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 2.7 percent on December 20, down from 2.8 percent on December 15. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -21.2 percent to -21.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 23. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 15, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 2.8 percent on December 15, down from 3.2 percent on December 9. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter gross personal consumption expenditures growth, fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth, and fourth-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 3.7 percent, 0.7 percent, and 1.1 percent, respectively, to 3.4 percent, -0.1 percent, and 0.8 percent, respectively.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, December 20. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 09, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.2 percent on December 9, down from 3.4 percent on December 6. After this morning's releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.7 percent to 0.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 06, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.4 percent on December 6, up from 2.8 percent on December 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real government spending growth from 3.2 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, to 3.7 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively, were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth from 2.0 percent to 1.7 percent. Also, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.16 percentage points to 0.37 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 01, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 2.8 percent on December 1, down from 4.3 percent on November 23. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 4.8 percent to 3.2 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth from 1.0 percent to 2.0 percent. In addition, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.64 percentage points to 0.16 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, December 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 23, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 4.3 percent on November 23, up from 4.2 percent on November 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.4 percent to 1.0 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 17, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 4.2 percent on November 17, down from 4.4 percent on November 16. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -7.6 percent to -11.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 23. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 16, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 4.4 percent on November 16, up from 4.0 percent on November 9. After this morning’s retail sales release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 4.2 percent to 4.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, November 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 09, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 4.0 percent on November 9, up from 3.6 percent on November 3. After last week's employment situation report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.0 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, to 4.2 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 03, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.6 percent on November 3, up from 2.6 percent on November 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.9 percent and -1.3 percent, respectively, to 4.0 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.74 percentage points to 0.62 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 01, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 2.6 percent on November 1, down from 3.1 percent on October 28. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.7 percent to 2.9 percent was slightly offset by an increase in fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -1.6 percent to -1.3 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, November 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
October 28, 2022
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.1 percent on October 28. The initial estimate of third-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 27 was 2.6 percent, 0.5 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on October 26.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, November 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
October 26, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 3.1 percent on October 26, up from 2.9 percent on October 19. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth increased from 2.4 percent to 3.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 2.23 percentage points to 2.19 percentage points.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the third quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 will be on Friday, October 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.