The commentaries for the 75 most recent GDPNow updates are below, starting with the latest estimate.
October 01, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on October 1, down from 3.1 percent on September 27. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic growth decreased from 3.3 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and 0.8 percent.The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, October 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 27, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on September 27, up from 2.9 percent on September 18. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decline in the nowcast of real personal consumption expenditures growth was more than offset by increases in the nowcasts of real gross private domestic investment growth and the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth.The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, October 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 18, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on September 18, down from 3.0 percent on September 17. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent to 2.8 percent.The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 17, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on September 17, up from 2.5 percent on September 9. After recent releases from the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.5 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, to 3.7 percent and 3.2 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.40 percentage points to -0.36 percentage points.The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 09, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on September 9, up from 2.1 percent on September 4. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.2 percent and 0.0 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 1.2 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.37 percentage points to -0.40 percentage points.The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, September 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 04, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on September 4, up from 2.0 percent on September 3. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -0.6 percent to 0.0 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.3 percent to 3.2 percent.The next GDPNow update is Monday, September 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
September 03, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.0 percent on September 3, down from 2.5 percent on August 30. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic growth decreased from 3.8 percent and -0.1 percent, respectively, to 3.3 percent and -0.6 percent.The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 30, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on August 30, up from 2.0 percent on August 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.0 percent and -2.4 percent, respectively, to 3.8 percent and -0.1 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.04 percentage points to -0.39 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, September 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 26, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.0 percent on August 26, unchanged from August 16 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.28 percentage points to -0.30 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, August 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 16, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.0 percent on August 16, down from 2.4 percent on August 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.0 percent to -2.4 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, August 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 15, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.4 percent on August 15, down from 2.9 percent on August 8. After recent releases from the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.8 percent to 0.0 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, August 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 08, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on August 8, unchanged from August 6 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.8 percent to 2.9 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 06, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on August 6, up from 2.5 percent on August 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic growth increased from 2.6 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and 2.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
August 01, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on August 1, down from 2.8 percent on July 26. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic growth decreased from 2.9 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and 1.6 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, August 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 26, 2024
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.8 percent on July 26. The initial estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 25 was 2.8 percent, 0.2 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on July 24.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 24, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.6 percent on July 24, down from 2.7 percent on July 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 8.9 percent to 7.7 percent was partially offset by an increase the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from -0.75 percentage points to -0.65 percentage points.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the second quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the third quarter will be on Friday, July 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
July 17, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on July 17, up from 2.5 percent on July 16. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.1 percent and 7.7 percent, respectively, to 2.2 percent and 8.9 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 24.
July 16, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on July 16, up from 2.0 percent on July 10. After this morning’s retail sales report, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 1.6 percent to 2.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 17.
July 10, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.0 percent on July 10, up from 1.5 percent on July 3. After last Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.1 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and 7.6 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, July 16.
July 03, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.5 percent on July 3, down from 1.7 percent on July 1. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic growth decreased from 1.5 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively, to 1.1 percent and 6.5 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.94 percentage points to -0.78 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 10.
July 01, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.7 percent on July 1, down from 2.2 percent on June 28. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic growth decreased from 1.8 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and 6.9 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 3.
June 28, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.2 percent on June 28, down from 2.7 percent on June 27. After this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis , the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.5 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 8.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, July 1.
June 27, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on June 27, down from 3.0 percent on June 20. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from -0.56 percentage points to -0.95 percentage points was partially offset by an increase the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 8.3 percent to 8.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, June 28.
June 20, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on June 20, down from 3.1 percent on June 18. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 8.8 percent to 8.3 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 27.
June 18, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on June 18, unchanged from June 7 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.8 percent to 2.5 percent was offset by increases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and second-quarter real government spending growth from 7.7 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 8.8 percent and 2.5 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.68 percentage points to 0.75 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 20.
June 07, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on June 7, up from 2.6 percent on June 6. After this morning’s employment situation release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.4 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, to 2.8 percent and 7.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 18.
June 06, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.6 percent on June 6, up from 1.8 percent on June 3. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.8 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively, to 2.4 percent and 5.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.54 percentage points to -0.50 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, June 7.
June 03, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.8 percent on June 3, down from 2.7 percent on May 31. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts for annualized second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth declined from 2.6 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 1.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 6.
May 31, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on May 31, down from 3.5 percent on May 24. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.4 percent to 2.6 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 5.1 percent to 6.3 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.06 percentage points to -0.60 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, June 3.
May 24, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.5 percent on May 24, down from 3.6 percent on May 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 5.6 percent to 5.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, May 31.
May 16, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.6 percent on May 16, down from 3.8 percent on May 15. After this morning's releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 7.3 percent to 5.6 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.2 percent to 3.4 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.09 percentage points to -0.06 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, May 24.
May 15, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.8 percent on May 15, down from 4.2 percent on May 8. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, a decrease in nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.9 percent to 3.2 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.8 percent to 7.3 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, May 16.
May 08, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent on May 8, up from 3.3 percent on May 2. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.2 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, to 3.9 percent and 6.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.05 percentage points to -0.10 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, May 15.
May 02, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.3 percent on May 2, unchanged from May 1 after rounding. After this morning’s international trade report from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the M3-2 manufacturing report by the US Census Bureau, increases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 3.1 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, to 3.2 percent and 4.1 percent were offset by a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth 0.01 percentage points to -0.05 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, May 8.
May 01, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.3 percent on May 1, down from 3.9 percent on April 26. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.0 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, to 3.1 percent and 4.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.05 percentage points to 0.01 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, May 2.
April 26, 2024
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.9 percent on April 26. The initial estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 25 was 1.6 percent, 1.1 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on April 24.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, May 1.
April 24, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on April 24, down from 2.9 percent on April 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.5 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, to 3.3 percent and 3.5 percent.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the first quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the second quarter will be on Friday, April 26.
April 16, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on April 16, up from 2.8 percent on April 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.4 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 3.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 24.
April 15, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.8 percent on April 15, up from 2.4 percent on April 10. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, increases in nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 2.9 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, to 3.4 percent and 3.4 percent, were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real government spending growth from 2.6 percent to 2.3 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.24 percentage points to -0.15 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, April 16.
April 10, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.4 percent on April 10, down from 2.5 percent on April 4. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.1 percent to 2.9 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real government spending growth from 2.5 to 2.6 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, April 15.
April 04, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on April 4, down from 2.8 percent on April 1. After this morning’s international release from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to annualized first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.48 percentage points to -0.57 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 10.
April 01, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.8 percent on April 1, up from 2.3 percent on March 29. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic growth increased from 2.6 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, to 3.2 percent and 3.9 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 4.
March 29, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.3 percent on March 29, up from 2.1 percent on March 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 1.9 percent to 2.6 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.16 percentage points to -0.47 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, April 1.
March 26, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on March 26, unchanged from March 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.7 percent to 3.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 29.
March 19, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on March 19, down from 2.3 percent from March 14. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.2 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and 2.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, March 26.
March 14, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.3 percent on March 14, down from 2.5 percent from March 7. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.9 percent to 2.2 percent was slightly offset by increases in the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and first-quarter real government spending growth from 1.7 and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 3.0 and 2.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, March 19.
March 07, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on March 7, unchanged from March 6. After this morning’s international trade report from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.6 percent to 2.9 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.8 percent to 1.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.04 percentage points to -0.15 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, March 14.
March 06, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on March 6, up from 2.1 percent on March 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.2 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and 1.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, March 7.
March 01, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on March 1, down from 3.0 percent on February 29. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.0 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, to 2.2 percent and 1.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 6.
February 29, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on February 29, down from 3.2 percent on February 27. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.6 percent to 3.0 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.20 percentage points to -0.01 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 1.
February 27, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on February 27, up from 2.9 percent on February 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.5 percent to 4.6 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 29.
February 16, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on February 16, unchanged from February 15. After this morning's Producer Price Index release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.4 percent to 2.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, February 27.
February 15, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on February 15, down from 3.4 percent on February 8. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, to 2.7 percent and 2.4 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.22 percentage points to 0.19 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, February 16.
February 08, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.4 percent on February 8, unchanged from February 7 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 3.2 percent to 3.3 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.3 percent to 3.2 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 15.
February 07, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.4 percent on February 7, down from 4.2 percent on February 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter gross personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 4.9 percent to 3.3 percent, while the nowcast of first-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.7 percent to 3.2 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 8.
February 01, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent on February 1, up from 3.0 percent on January 26. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.6 percent and -0.3 percent, respectively, to 4.9 percent and 1.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.27 percentage points to 0.18 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 7.
January 26, 2024
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on January 26. The initial estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 25 was 3.3 percent, 0.9 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on January 19. For technical reasons, tabs to the right of ReadMe in this excel file have not been updated.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 1.
January 19, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on January 19, unchanged from January 18 after rounding. After this morning's existing-home sales report from the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -0.4 percent to -0.6 percent.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the first quarter will be on Friday, January 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 18, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on January 18, unchanged from January 17 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 0.2 percent to -0.4 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, January 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 17, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on January 17, up from 2.2 on January 10. After recent releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.6 percent and -0.7 percent, respectively, to 2.8 percent and -0.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, January 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 10, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on January 10, unchanged from January 9 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -0.6 percent to -0.7 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, January 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 09, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on January 9, down from 2.5 percent on January 3. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter gross personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.9 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and -0.6 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.23 percentage points to -0.07 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, January 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 03, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on January 3, up from 2.0 percent on January 2. After this morning’s release of the ISM Manufacturing Index from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter gross personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.4 percent and -0.4 percent, respectively, to 2.9 percent and 0.5 percent
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, January 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
January 02, 2024
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.0 percent on January 2, down from 2.3 percent on December 22. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.8 percent to -0.4 percent, and the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.11 percentage points to -0.22 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, January 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 22, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent on December 22, down from 2.7 percent on December 19. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 3.0 percent to 2.4 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, January 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 19, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.7 percent on December 19, up from 2.6 percent on December 14. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 22. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 14, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.6 percent on December 14, up from 1.2 percent on December 7. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and fourth-quarter real government spending growth increased from 1.9 percent, -3.0 percent, and 3.1 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent, 0.5 percent, and 3.6 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.06 percentage points to -0.12 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, December 19. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 07, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.2 percent on December 7, down from 1.3 percent on December 6 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -2.9 percent to -3.0 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 14. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 06, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.3 percent on December 6, up from 1.2 percent on December 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.8 percent and -3.2 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and -2.9 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.01 percentage points to -0.06 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
December 01, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.2 percent on December 1, down from 1.8 percent on November 30. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -2.7 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and -3.2 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, December 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 30, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.8 percent on November 30, down from 2.1 percent on November 22. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -1.1 percent to -2.7 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.09 percentage points to -0.05 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 22, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on November 22, up from 2.0 percent on November 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -1.8 percent to -1.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, November 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 17, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.0 percent on November 17, down from 2.2 percent on November 15. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -0.8 percent to -1.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 22. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 15, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on November 15, up from 2.1 percent on November 8. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.6 percent and -1.1 percent, respectively, to 2.7 percent and -0.8 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, November 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
November 08, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on November 8, unchanged from November 7 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -1.0 percent to -1.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.