Wu-Xia Shadow Federal Funds Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee has targeted the federal funds rate between 0 and ¼ percent from December 16, 2008, to December 15, 2015, and, subsequently, since March 15, 2020. In these "zero lower bound" environments, a number of researchers have used shadow rate models to characterize the term structure of interest rates (Kim and Singleton [2012] and Bauer and Rudebusch [2013]) or quantify the stance of monetary policy (Bullard [2012] and Krippner [2013]). This web page hosts estimates from the Wu and Xia (2016) model of the shadow rate.

As long as the FOMC maintains the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent, we will generally try and update the Wu-Xia shadow federal funds rate on the day of, or the business day after, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors first releases the Gurkaynak, Sack, and Wright (GSW) daily yield curve estimates for the last business day of the previous month. The Board typically releases the GSW data weekly on Tuesdays for the period up to the Friday of the previous week.

Latest update — November 3, 2021

The Wu-Xia shadow federal funds rate stood at -1.70 percent on October 29. The rate is constructed with underlying input data for Gurkaynak, Sack, and Wright yield curve estimates.