John Robertson

Senior Policy Adviser and Economist Emeritus
email :: 404-498-8782

To interview economists, press should contact Public Affairs at 470-249-8348.

John Robertson is an economist emeritus of the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Before his retirement, he was a senior policy adviser and economist on the macroeconomics and monetary policy team. His research has been widely published, covering a variety of macroeconomic and microeconomic topics, and he is one of the Bank's senior monetary policy advisers. He also contributes to the Atlanta Fed's Policy Hub: Macroblog, which provides commentary on economic issues, including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, and the Southeast economy, and he gives public talks on a range of economic subjects.

Dr. Robertson joined the Atlanta Fed's Research Department in December 1997 from the Australian National University in Canberra, Australia. A native of Dunedin, New Zealand, Dr. Robertson holds bachelor's and master's degrees from the University of Canterbury in New Zealand and earned his PhD in economics from Virginia Tech in 1992.

Atlanta Fed Working Papers

2013-20
High-Growth Firms in Georgia
Taelim Choi, John C. Robertson, and Anil Rupasingha
December 2013
Abstract | Full text (1 MB)

2006-8
Asymmetric Labor Force Participation Decisions over the Business Cycle: Evidence from U.S. Microdata
Julie L. Hotchkiss and John C. Robertson
July 2006
Abstract | Full text (209 KB)

2006-1
The Push-Pull Effects of the Information Technology Boom and Bust: Insight from Matched Employer-Employee Data
Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and John C. Robertson
February 2006
Abstract | Full text (245 KB)

2005-11
Earnings on the Information Technology Rollercoaster: Insight from Matched Employer-Employee Data
Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and John C. Robertson
June 2005
Abstract | Full text (255 KB)

2004-19
Wage Gains among Job Changers across the Business Cycle: Insight from State Administrative Data
Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and John C. Robertson
August 2004
Abstract | Full text (1.1 MB)

2002-22
Forecasting Using Relative Entropy
John C. Robertson, Ellis W. Tallman, and Charles H. Whiteman
November 2002
Abstract | Full text (223 KB)

99-13
Prior Parameter Uncertainty: Some Implications for Forecasting and Policy Analysis with VAR Models
John C. Robertson and Ellis W. Tallman
October 1999
Abstract | Full text (142 KB)

99-3
Improving Forecasts of the Federal Funds Rate in a Policy Model
John C. Robertson and Ellis W. Tallman
March 1999
Abstract | Full text (94 KB)

Articles

2024

John Robertson. "Looking Back at 10 Years of the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker," Policy Hub: Macroblog. February 5, 2024.

2023

John Robertson and Jon Willis. "Distinguishing Cyclical from Noncyclical Employment," Policy Hub: Macroblog. October 12, 2023.

Lei Fang and John Robertson. "During the Pandemic, Average Hours Rose. And Fell." Policy Hub: Macroblog. October 5, 2023.

John Robertson. "Retirement and Its Impact on Labor Supply" Policy Hub: Macroblog. April 21, 2023.

John Robertson. "Real Wage Growth: A View from the Wage Growth Tracker" Policy Hub: Macroblog. February 14, 2023.

John Robertson. "Population Control Adjustment's Impact on Labor Force Data: The 2023 Edition" Policy Hub: Macroblog. February 9, 2023.

John Robertson. "The Wage Growth Tracker with Rounded Wage Data: The Final Plan" Policy Hub: Macroblog. January 9, 2023.

2022

M. Melinda Pitts, John Robertson, and Salomé Baslandze. "Labor Supply, Wages, and Inequality Conference: Day 2 Overview" Policy Hub: Macroblog. December 1, 2022.

John Robertson. "Rounded Wage Data and the Wage Growth Tracker: An Update," Policy Hub: Macroblog. July 13, 2022.

John Robertson and Jon Willis. "Assessing Recent Labor Market Improvement," Policy Hub: Macroblog. March 1, 2022.

John Robertson. "Rounded Wage Data and the Wage Growth Tracker," Policy Hub: Macroblog. February 3, 2022.

2021

John Robertson. "Do Rising Retirements during COVID Reflect Demographic Trends?," Policy Hub: Macroblog. August 10, 2021.

John Robertson. "Hourly and Weekly Perspectives on Wage Growth during the Pandemic," Policy Hub: Macroblog. March 23, 2021.

John Robertson. "Insights from the Updated Labor Force Participation Dynamics Tool," Policy Hub: Macroblog. February 11, 2021.

Jason DeBacker, Julie Hotchkiss, Melinda Pitts, and John C. Robertson. "It's Who You Are and What You Do: Explaining the IT Industry Wage Premium." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (2005 Q3).
Abstract | Full text (105 KB)

Elias Ilin, John Robertson, Alexander Ruder, and Ellyn Terry. "Amid the COVID-19 Crisis, a Tale of Two Southeastern Cities." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Partners Update (COVID-19 Publications 2020).

John C. Robertson. "Central Bank Forecasting: An International Comparison." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (2000 Q2).
Abstract | Full text (184 KB)

John C. Robertson and Ellis W. Tallman. "Vector Autoregressions: Forecasting and Reality." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (1999 Q1).
Abstract | Full text (215 KB)

John C. Robertson and Ellis W. Tallman. "Data Vintages and Measuring Forecast Model Performance." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (1998 Q4).
Abstract | Full text (233 KB)

John C. Robertson and Daniel L. Thornton. "Using the Federal Funds Futures Rate to Predict Federal Reserve Actions ." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (1997).

Adrian R. Pagan and John C. Robertson. "Resolving the Liquidity Effect ." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (1995 No3).

Blog Posts

John Robertson. "Two Quite Different Paths for U.S. Unemployment," macroblog. October 7, 2020.

John Robertson. "Unpaid Absence from Work Because of COVID-19," macroblog. April 13, 2020.

Elias Ilin, John Robertson, Alex Ruder, and Ellyn Terry. "Amid the COVID-19 Crisis, a Tale of Two Cities," macroblog. April 9, 2020.

John Robertson, Alexander Ruder. "Do Higher Wages Mean Higher Standards of Living?," macroblog. January 16, 2020.

John Robertson. "Is Job-Switching on the Decline?," macroblog. November 25, 2019.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Digging into Older Americans' Flat Participation Rate ," macroblog. September 26, 2019.

John Robertson. "What the Wage Growth of Hourly Workers Is Telling Us," macroblog. August 5, 2019.

John Robertson. "Improving Labor Force Participation," macroblog. May 6, 2019.

John Robertson. "X Factor: Hispanic Women Drive the Labor-Force Comeback," macroblog. March 6, 2019.

John Robertson. "Are Employers Focusing More on Staff Retention?," macroblog. January 11, 2019.

John Robertson. "Defining Job Switchers in the Wage Growth Tracker," macroblog. December 4, 2018.

John Robertson. "Polarization through the Prism of the Wage Growth Tracker (Take Two)," macroblog. November 16, 2018.

John Robertson. "Polarization through the Prism of the Wage Growth Tracker," macroblog. November 14, 2018.

John Robertson. "Demographically Adjusting the Wage Growth Tracker," macroblog. October 1, 2018.

John Robertson. "Does Loyalty Pay Off?," macroblog. August 15, 2018.

John Robertson. "Immigration and Hispanics' Educational Attainment," macroblog. August 8, 2018.

Whitney Mancuso and John Robertson. "Improving Labor Market Fortunes for Workers with the Least Schooling," macroblog. July 20, 2018.

John Robertson. "Part-Time Workers Are Less Likely to Get a Pay Raise," macroblog. June 1, 2018.

John Robertson. "Hitting a Cyclical High: The Wage Growth Premium from Changing Jobs," macroblog. April 18, 2018.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Weighting the Wage Growth Tracker," macroblog. February 28, 2018.

John Robertson. "How Low Is the Unemployment Rate, Really?," macroblog. January 18, 2018.

John Robertson. "Behind the Increase in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation," macroblog. July 31, 2017.

John Robertson. "Another Look at the Wage Growth Tracker's Cyclicality," macroblog. July 11, 2017.

John Robertson. "Going to School on Labor Force Participation," macroblog. April 11, 2017.

John Robertson. "Working for Yourself, Some of the Time," macroblog. March 20, 2017.

John Robertson. "More Ways to Watch Wages," macroblog. February 23, 2017.

John Robertson. "Unemployment versus Underemployment: Assessing Labor Market Slack," macroblog. February 21, 2017.

John Robertson. "Wage Growth Tracker: Every Which Way (and Up)," macroblog. January 23, 2017.

John Robertson. "Does Lower Pay Mean Smaller Raises?," macroblog. November 28, 2016.

John Robertson. "Wages Climb Higher, Faster," macroblog. November 15, 2016.

John Robertson. "Is Wage Growth Accelerating?," macroblog. October 24, 2016.

John Robertson. "Unemployment Risk and Unions," macroblog. October 18, 2016.

John Robertson. "A Quick Pay Check: Wage Growth of Full-Time and Part-Time Workers," macroblog. September 30, 2016.

John Robertson. "Back to the '80s, Courtesy of the Wage Growth Tracker," macroblog. September 27, 2016.

John Robertson. "Payroll Employment Growth: Strong Enough?," macroblog. August 15, 2016.

John Robertson. "Men at Work: Are We Seeing a Turnaround in Male Labor Force Participation?," macroblog. July 29, 2016.

John Robertson. "Was May's Drop in Labor Force Participation All Bad News?," macroblog. June 22, 2016.

John Robertson. "Wage Growth for Job Stayers and Switchers Added to the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker," macroblog. June 21, 2016.

John Robertson. "Experts Debate Policy Options for China's Transition," macroblog. June 16, 2016.

John Robertson. "Moving On Up," macroblog. June 2, 2016.

John Robertson. "Putting the Wage Growth Tracker to Work," macroblog. June 1, 2016.

John Robertson. "What's behind the Recent Uptick in Labor Force Participation?," macroblog. May 4, 2016.

John Robertson. "Is the Number of Stay-at-Home Dads Going Up or Down?," macroblog. April 29, 2016.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Labor Force Participation: Aging Is Only Half the Story," macroblog. April 15, 2016.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Which Wage Growth Measure Best Indicates Slack in the Labor Market?," macroblog. April 4, 2016.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Are Paychecks Picking Up the Pace?," macroblog. February 17, 2016.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Shrinking Labor Market Opportunities for the Disabled?," macroblog. January 29, 2016.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Labor Report Silver Lining? ZPOP Ratio Continued to Rise in September," macroblog. October 5, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "The ZPOP Ratio: A Simple Take on a Complicated Labor Market," macroblog. September 22, 2015.

John Robertson. "Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?." macroblog. September 1, 2015.

John Robertson. "No Wage Change?." macroblog. August 21, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Have Changing Job and Worker Characteristics Restrained Wage Growth?." macroblog. July 15, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "New Atlanta Fed Series Shows Wage Growth Held Steady in May." macroblog. June 29, 2015.

John Robertson. "Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Measure Increased Again in April." macroblog. June 5, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Signs of Strengthening Wage Growth?." macroblog. May 1, 2015.

John Robertson. "What Seems to Be Holding Back Labor Productivity Growth, and Why It Matters." macroblog. April 2, 2015.

Ellyn Terry and John Robertson. "Signs of Improvement in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation." macroblog. March 6, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "What's (Not) Up with Wage Growth?." macroblog. February 17, 2015.

John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Are We Becoming a Part-Time Economy?." macroblog. February 12, 2015.

Podcast Episodes

John Robertson. "Piecing Together the Wage Puzzle." Economy Matters podcast. November 29, 2018.

John Robertson. "The Wherefores and Whys of Wages." Economy Matters podcast. May 24, 2017.